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The Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas — currently held by Republican John Cornyn is shaping up as a competitive but early contest between two prominent Texas Democrats: Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and State Representative James Talarico. Both are well-known among Democratic circles, but they bring different styles, bases of support, and campaign narratives to the race.

The first major head-to-head poll released after Crockett’s entry into the race shows her leading Talarico 51% to 43% among likely Democratic primary voters, with about 6% undecided. This statewide survey was conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University in early December 2025.

Key takeaways from the poll:

• Crockett’s strengths:
• Black voters: Overwhelming advantage (about 89% to 8%).
• Women voters: Leads more than 20 points.
• Older voters (55+): Strong support.
• Name recognition: About 94% know enough about Crockett to have an opinion.

• Talarico’s strengths:
• White and Latino voters: Leads by double digits among those groups.
• Younger voters (18–34): Strong advantage.
• Perception among crossover voters: A larger share of Democrats believe Talarico could attract Republican voters in a general election.
• Name recognition: About 79% know enough about him — meaning he has room to grow.

The polling suggests Crockett currently has the edge in the primary — but it’s early in the race, and with more campaigning and voter outreach yet to come, the dynamics could shift as primary day approaches.

Early fundraising reports show both campaigns are financially competitive, although Talarico entered the race earlier and has been reporting significant cash reserves. Crockett, even with a later entry, says she posted record-breaking numbers for her campaign fundraising quarters despite limited filing time.

The Crockett campaign emphasizes mobilizing the Democratic base — energizing voters who haven’t shown up in previous statewide contests and turning out communities critical to Democratic success. This aligns with her strengths in early polling, particularly among Black voters and women.

Talarico’s strategy leans more toward building broad coalitions, including appealing to moderate and crossover voters who might be essential in November given how Texas historically leans Republican. Polls reflect this: many Democratic voters believe he may be relatively stronger with potential crossover voters in the general election.

No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, and even high-profile nominees have come close but fallen short (e.g., Beto O’Rourke in 2018). As a result, both campaigns must convince voters not only that they can win the primary but that they are positioned to defeat the Republican nominee in a tough statewide environment.

For many Democratic strategists, the challenge is balancing base enthusiasm with electability in the general election — a dilemma that often influences primary dynamics. Crockett’s strong base support has made her the early favorite in the Democratic primary, while Talarico’s broader appeal narrative aims to attract voters looking ahead to November.

Primary Election Day: March 3, 2026.

The race will likely continue evolving with more polls, endorsements, fundraising reports, and campaign events shaping the narrative.

Watch for how each campaign expands beyond their core supporters and engages critical constituencies across the state.

Jasmine Crockett is currently favored in the Democratic primary based on early polling and name recognition.

James Talarico remains competitive with strengths in different voter segments (younger, white and Latino voters, and crossover potential).

As with any primary, it’s still early, and shifts in voter sentiment, endorsements, and campaign strategy could reshape the race in the coming weeks and months.